The Covid Vaccine was announced yesterday, crazy timing… for more on that timing and how I think it’s B.S., see my letter here -> https://thekaleletter.substack.com
However, the big question is, how will this affect Amazon?
Clearly, the Amazon STOCK did NOT like that news yesterday…
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The stock tumbled about 6%, which is HILARIOUS to me… Here’s why…
1) Habits don’t change that quickly!!
We’ve been doing this “Covid thing” for going on 9 months now!!
We’ve all heard the “it takes 14 or 21 or 46 or whatever days to form a new habit…”
Well, it’s been A LOT MORE DAYS THAN THAT.
People’s habits are SET.
They’ve been buying literally everything on Amazon (I know I have, have you?)
and that is not going to change simply because they get a quick prick in their arm!
2) Malls are literally dead (or walking corpses)
When’s the last time you actually went to a mall?
Same.
It’s basically no longer a thing that people do.
And from running a retail store in the mall in college…
I know one thing…
Mall margins are CRAP.
There is no possible way that the majority of stores in malls will be able to maintain profitability, which means we are only BEGINNING to see the ripple effects of closure that Covid has caused.
It’s not Covid itself that will kill retail.
It’s people’s habits changing, and yes, they have changed, permanently.
3)There's no vaccine for a monopoly.
I’ve already written about this extensively in other letters, I would encourage you to go back and read them.
However, at the end of the day, Amazon is the perfect example of a monopoly.
Companies that form monopolies on industries suck up ALL the profit and completely eviscerate anyone in their path.
Don’t believe me?
Think of these 3 brands.
Apple.
Google.
Facebook.
All giant tech monopolies.
Now, in order to demonstrate this even further, just try to think, seriously, of any company coming up to challenge those 3 (+ amazon).
How would they do it?
Move 1 billion + iphone users to another platform? (not likely)
Move the entire internet to another search engine? (not likely)
Move 2 billion+ active monthly users from Facebook to another social network? (not likely)
Move 300 million Amazon prime members over to a platform with slower shipping and returns that are more of a hassle? (nope).
Vaccine or no vaccine, there is no breaking up these giant tech monopolies.
For an even deeper argument on this, and why AI is the REAL reason the GOVERNMENT can’t even break up Amazon, please see -> https://nineuniversitynewsletter.substack.com
Okay, that’s what I’ve got for you today.
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Love ya.
Kale
Will the Covid Vaccine DESTROY Amazon?